Trade Profiles: AJ Burnett

Picture Credit: Bleeding Yankee Blue Blog

Today I delve into the other player that has constantly been rumored to be on the Pirates' wish list, Batman himself, AJ Burnett.  Now if you follow me on twitter you probably know my feelings about bringing Burnett back to the Pirates, but I will give deeper analysis here.

AJ isn't having a bad season after signing a one year $16 million deal with the Phillies with a $7.5 million option for next season.  According to Fangraphs, Burnett has a 6-8 record and an ERA of 3.83.  That's pretty average.  Now looking at that magical stat I love, FIP, Burnett should have an ERA of 3.97.  And the even more advanced stat, xFIP, says he should have an ERA of 3.98.  Just a quick aside, FIP is fielding independent pitching, and xFIP is expected fielding independent pitching.  xFIP just ignores even more unlucky stats such as home run to fly ball ratio.  It is very interesting and much more accurate and I highly suggest learning more about it.  But back to AJ, he has a WHIP of 1.33.  Burnett also has a K/9 of 7.38 and a BB/9 of 3.90.  Now knowing the stats, let's get a do a little analysis.

If you look at AJ's stats, he seems to be having a solid season and he is.  But read more into it.  His ERA and FIP are much higher than they were when he was a Pirate.  His strikeouts are way down and his WHIP and walks are up.  That is not a good sign.  It looks like old, and I don't use that term lightly, AJ Burnett is slowing down.  Do the Pirates really need a declining pitcher on their roster for the next season and a half?  Also, look at that price.  If the Pirates wouldn't pay more than $12 million for AJ Burnett, why would they give up prospects to get him AND pay him more?  Does that make sense?  AJ also has a sports hernia and he needs surgery that he is holding off on until the end of the season.  So he's also damaged goods!

Now if that wasn't enough to convince you that he would be a bad idea, a great site I pay a lot of attention to, Pirates Prospects, put out a great article about AJ as well (which I unfortunately can't seem to find).  And if you read their analysis, AJ would be the 7th best starting pitching option the Pirates have.  Only beating out Edinson Volquez.  Seventh!  Robin is even better than Batman now!  So he would not even be an upgrade.  And I didn't even mention how much of a clubhouse distraction he would be.

This may article may seem like a complete blast of AJ Burnett but I don't hate the guy.  He was a great pitcher for the Pirates.  An absolute ace.  And he basically made baseball relevant in Pittsburgh again by himself.  Words can't describe how much he meant to this club on and off the field the past two seasons.  And maybe he can come back and a playoff race will revitalize him.  But I doubt it.  It may be hard to admit because he has been so good and meant so much to this team but AJ Burnett is not the same pitcher he was the past two years.  It's time to stop putting up the bat signal, he's not going to answer.