Friday, June 21, 2013

The question isn't should the Pirates bring in Giancarlo Stanton, it's will they bring him in


Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that the Pirates have been linked to Giancarlo Stanton. It started with an article by Dave Schoenfield who described why we need Stanton. James Santelli took it farther and talked about the ten reasons the Pirates should trade for Stanton. I can't link the articles because it screws up my entire post (this is the second time I'm writing this) but if you go to PiratesProspects.com or the ESPN SweetSpot Blog I'm sure you can find both articles. They're also both on twitter and fantastic reads if you have the time. Anyways, Dave's article summarized says we need Stanton to stop our hitting woes and says a price the Marlins would take would be Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco, Tony Sanchez, and a C grade left handed pitching prospect. Steep price huh? Well it's absolutely worth it. If you followed me last year, I was in on the Justin Upton trade but that probably would've been a mistake. This is different. Stanton is a bonafide star. He's 23, plays RF, is under control through the 2016 season, and is one of only 12 players to hit 100 HRs before their 23rd birthday. 8 of the other 11 are in Cooperstown, two more are Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr (sure fire Hall of Famers). So basically ya. This guy ain't coming cheap. But you know what it's worth it.

This deal is worth it because of the farm system. I can't applaud Neal Huntington enough for building what I and several experts believe is the best farm system in the MLB from the garbage heap he got from Dave Littlefield. We would be trading our top two prospects but we would have replacements. Trade Taillon, you have Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, and Luis Heredia still in the system all with similar potential. Trade Polanco, still have Austin Meadows, Josh Bell, Barrett Barnes, Elvis Escobar, Harold Ramirez all in the system. While they don't have Polanco's potential, you have several guys who could develop into players just about the same as him. Even trading Tony Sanchez would be ok. We wouldn't have much in AAA and would need to extend Russell Martin but Reese McGuire, Wyatt Mathieson, and Jin De Jhang. Are all in the low minors. So you see while the price looks steep, we can still do it without "selling the farm".

Why do we need Stanton? That's a stupid question. Everyone needs a power bat like that in their lineup but especially the Pirates. Travis Snider has disappointed and the Pirates rank dead last in OPS from right field in the NL. Obvious need for improvement. Guess what position Mike Giancarlo Stanton plays? You already know.

So if this is the scenario, the Pirates really should do this right? Right. But will they? That's a different story.

The first roadblock is will the Marlins trade him. Well, the Marlins flat out suck. No way around it. They won't contend until after Stanton is gone so they will trade him but they may wait until the offseason until they get a bigger haul. But what if they decide now is the time. Well, like I said everyone could use a Giancarlo Stanton so everyone will want him. There are very few teams that have the resources to do this trade without destroying their future. The Yankees want him but I don't think they have the prospects. The Rangers are the biggest threat but their biggest trade chips are two shortstops (Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus). The Marlins got a star SS prospect in the Blue Jay fire sale trade so they may not be a match. So the Marlins decide to sell him. We're the perfect match. Why won't the Pirates make this deal. Well there's still one big problem.

Management. Do Neal Huntington and Bob Nutting have the balls to pull this off? Will they take the risk. It is a big risk. Sending two of the top prospects in baseball away for one man who has an injury history and will cost a lot of money in the next three years. Could they extend him and bite the bullet of money? (James Santelli's suggestion). I just don't see Neal Huntington standing up and saying "Deal". Even if he was, I don't see Bob Nutting allowing him to do it. The Pirates will not go with the core of seven (Cutch, Marte, Cole, Alvarez, Locke, Walker, Stanton) that could win multiple World Series through 2016 while they're under team control but will rather hope for Stanton to be switched with Taillon and Polanco for a longer time period starting in two more years.

I don't agree with this but I think it is what they will do. I think this team has more depth and is not going to collapse if help is added to the offense. But if you think about it, Neal has been cautious because he knew the team wasn't that good. The team needs a right fielder. Neal Huntington needs to win to avoid losing his job. Nutting needs to win over fans. MLB teams are getting over $20 million in new TV contracts next year. So is that a perfect storm to make a big move for Stanton or another superstar? The chances are slim but to cheer you up, the chances are probably higher than any Justin Upton trade last year but lower than any Hunter Pence trade. I'd look for more guys like Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young, Josh Willingham, Ricky Nolasco, Bud Norris, and relievers to be targeted. But could the stars align? It's a possibility that we could see Giancarlo Stanton crushing home runs into the Pittsburgh skyline.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Gerrit Cole: What happens after the debut?


Gerrit Cole will make his major league debut tonight for the Pirates. He's the first #1 Pirate Prospect to make his debut since Pedro Alvarez in 2010 and first #1 pitching prospect since Kris Benson in 1999. Needless to say, this is a big deal. This article is not about what to expect, which I believe will be very very good things, but about what happens afterwards. The top prospect in the system does not come up to make a spot start so I have to believe Cole is here to stay and optioning him back isn't an option. I have had an idea for a long time about what the Pirates should/could do with their excess starters. I thought I would have a post like this when Charlie Morton came up and JMac wasn't injured, but now Cole complicates things farther. There is a possible solution other than trades and here it is.

A six man rotation. This idea was discussed last year as a possibility to save energy for the starters but this year it's about using all the effective starters. After Cole debuts, we're going to have a problem. The rotation will look like this: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, and Gerrit Cole. This is assuming no DL stint for Wandy. Now Charlie Morton is ready and could be used as the long reliever for now but then we have James McDonald. Ok we can send down Vin Mazzaro and hope he passes through waivers so JMac can be the 2nd long man. But then we have Jeanmar Gomez. What now? We have three long relievers. Now comes the six man rotation idea. Throw Charlie Morton in as a sixth starter and use Gomez and McDonald as the long men. This makes Mazzaro the odd man out but sacrifices must be made. Another guy will be down for Cole tonight (guessing Zagurski gets optioned if he has any left, if not Reid is optioned) and eventually others will have to go too. But this could be a way to use the excess guys without being forced to DFA or trade them. I personally would rather see JMac traded for a bench piece or anything at this point. That would leave us with still a good bit of depth. This is also assuming that no other injuries occur which is always a possibility.

To conclude this, I'll say the best long term solution for the Pirates is a six man rotation or trading a starter if everyone remains healthy. If no one is traded I see this as the best rotation and bullpen in the future.

Rotation: AJ, Wandy, Liriano, Locke, Cole, Morton

Bullpen: JMac, Gomez, Wilson, Watson, Melancon, Grilli

I don't think the Pirates will do this and they will trade at least one excess starter but this is a possibility that must be explored. If someone is traded, look for it to be before someone comes off rehab or someone on rehab just before they come off like John McDonald was dealt today. Time will tell how this all works out.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Pirates grab Meadows, McGuire, and Taylor

The first day of the MLB Draft was a good one for the Pirates. A lot of people believe the Pirates had the best draft of the day and I tend to agree. They grabbed three high schoolers taking OF Austin Meadows, C Reese McGuire, and LHP Blake Taylor. This is interesting because Neal Huntington had never drafted a prep hitter in round one and he took two of them this year. The fact that they went boom or bust with high school players also shows how much the farm system has come along. I'll go over my reaction to each pick right now

Austin Meadows


Meadows was a guy who was talked about as possibly going number one this year. He and fellow top ten pick Clint Frazier tore it up in their Georgia town. Meadows was considered the #2 high school prospect, #2 outfielder, #2 overall hitter, and #5 overall player in the draft by Baseball America. That's quite a haul for the #9 overall pick. His bat is the big thing here. If he develops the power many expect he will, he will become a five tool outfielder like you see with Andrew McCutchen. He's not McCutchen though because he'll lose speed as he gets bigger and his arm isn't that good but solid. Meadows isn't seen as a guy that will be hard to sign so don't worry about that. Meadows is added to a deep stable of gifted outfielders along with Cutch, Starling Marte, Travis Snider, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, and Barrett Barnes. This takes pressure off of all of these guys to reach full potential and I would expect one or two of them to be traded in deals for major league pieces at the trade deadline or the offseason. This could also allow the Pirates to let Cutch walk down the road if three other guys are stepping up or he is starting to decline. I see a future outfield of Polanco, Marte, Meadows left to right in five years.

Reese McGuire



This was the guy the Pirates were linked to at #9 by every single mock draft. But when Meadows fell into their lap, they had to take him. I was kinda disappointed with this pick but it's not bad by any stretch of the imagination. Braden Shipley, a RHP from Nevada, was still available and was regarded as the third best college pitcher in the draft. He was expected to go #6 overall. I understand why they didn't take him though. Sign ability. Shipley was expected to go higher so he'll want more money. The Pirates couldn't afford another Appel situation so they took a guy they loved in McGuire. Back to McGuire now, he's regarded as the best catching prospect and #10 player overall so this is another value pick at #14. The problem with prep catchers is usually if they will stick at catcher (Neil Walker). McGuire has unbelievable defense and arm behind the plate so that is no problem. His bat is the issue and gets different reviews by different people. I tend to think his bat will develop and he'll add power in the minors. This should make him a future all-star catcher and those are extremely hard to come by.

Blake Taylor



Taylor is a big project LHP. He sits in the low 90s with his fastball and throws a nice curveball. He needs to develop a change up and learn some control, two things the Pirates are good at developing, just look at Tyler Glasnow. I feel this pick was more need based than people think although it is good value. Taylor was expected to go around here so it's a good value pick but considering who was on the board, Jon Denny and Bobby Wahl to name a few, it doesn't look that great. Denny makes it interesting because he is a prep catcher that some think has a higher ceiling than McGuire. If the Pirates knew he would still be available (and still is) I'm sure they would've taken Braden Shipley at #15 and taken the risk to sign him. Meadows, Shipley, and Denny would've deserved a standing ovation. Wahl is a college pitcher out of Ole Miss who was considered top 20 in some mocks I would've liked to see him because he'd be closer to the majors but I can live with passing on him. The Pirates needed LHP talent and got some at good value. Can't complain too much about that.

Overall the beginning of this draft has been fantastic and I expect more of the same as today goes on. Look for the Pirates to go for college hitters and pitchers early today and then taper off and go for falling high school pitchers they think they can develop into aces as many do in college around round 5 or 6 and see if they can pay over slot to sign them. Its starting to work with Tyler Glasnow so they'll keep doing it. I'll write another shorter one of these
tomorrow with interesting selections. Stay tuned

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Could Francisco Liriano be the ace of the Pirates Rotation?

I think he very well could be. Frank the Tank has steamrolled through his first three starts. He has struck out 9, 8, and 9 batters in those starts. He has had great control, barely walking anyone. Did I mention that he has an ERA of under 1? 

It's a small sample size for Franky but looking at his past, he's in for one of those career years. When his control is on, he's lights out. He had a great year in 2010 coming off of surgery and won comeback player of the year. His control was solid. The other year he had control like this, was 2006 when he won 12 games with an ERA under 3 and was a Cy Young candidate along with teammate and actual winner Johan Santana. If he can put up those numbers there is no one in this rotation that can say they're better.

If Liriano can keep this up along with AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and some combination of Charlie Morton, Jeff Locke, Jeff Karstens, Jeanmar Gomez, Gerrit Cole, and James McDonald, the Pirates will have a top three starting rotation in all of baseball. And that is a winning combination.

Monday, May 13, 2013

Extension for Starling Marte?

Figures that the first post under the new Marte Partay name would be about Starling himself. This is a great question that I have seen around several circles from Pirate bloggers and we all agree. Marte should be extended this offseason.

We all know that Marte is playing extremely well right now and that should not affect an extension. Marte has a small sample size. He has only played for less than a season and will play a little more than a full year at the end of the season. This shouldn't discourage an extension though either. These extensions have both of those positive and negative affects. The positive being an Evan Longoria (7 years $29 million with big option years making it worth over $100 million) and the negative of Jose Tabata (6 years $18 million with big option years). I think Marte could be as good as Longoria but may not be. I think the deal should be modeled after someone who signed yesterday, Anthony Rizzo.

Rizzo has similar experience to Marte and is a similar caliber player. He signed a 7 year $41 million deal with a big option year ($10 million). This would get Marte thorough his age 30 season at least and probably age 31 season with the option. This is perfect for Marte and the Pirates because he'll make more money as his skill improves and this gives the Pirates a cost effective control that buys out all of his arbitration years and one year of free agency.

This is the perfect situation for the Pirates and they could lock up Marte and McCutchen to play together for another 3 years. They showed interest in a power outfield under control when they pursued Justin Upton and this could be the next best thing. I just hope it gets done sooner rather than later.

Jordy Mercer gets Screwed

Jordy Mercer was optioned to Triple A today after Neil Walker was activated. This was a ridiculous decision and can be added to the list of why Clint Hurdle should be fired.

Not only does Jordy have a great hashtag (#LamborghiniMercer) but he has been playing well. He hasn't made any errors and has been hitting the ball at an average rate with 3 homers. The two guys he was sent down for however have not.

First guy is John McDonald. The old Prime Minister of Defense has to have the worst OPS in the majors. It's .276. I honestly do not know how that is possible. John has an average of between .060 and .070. To put that in perspective, Wandy Rodriguez is batting .156 in a similar number of ABs. And that defense, well it's been pretty unreliable for a guy known for good defense. So why is he still here over Mercer and even Josh Harrison or Ivan De Jesus? Neal Huntington says he "still fills a need". What that need is, I'll never know.

The other guy sticking around is Brandon Inge. He's terrible defensively but his bat is ok. He's shown an ability to hit lefties but Mercer blows him out of the water. Inge has 8 hits all year. Mercer has 8 since Friday. Inge brings a ton of versatility so he's better than McDonald and the internal options (for now) so I don't mind that he's still here.

Bottom line is Jordy Mercer should be in the majors getting 2-3 starts a week at SS, 2B, or 3B in the role that Inge is in now. This would allow him to dip into the majors since he'll be the starting SS next year in all likelihood. This is just another of several terrible moves by Hurdle/Huntington and I am really at my breaking point with it. I hope something changes soon.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Pirates add another "Mc"

The Pirates traded for John McDonald today and cleared a spot for him on the 40 man roster by placing Chase D'arnaud on the 60-day DL. McDonald is a utility man that is very reliable defensively but can't hit at all. If he doesn't remind you of anyone, he should. He's Clint Barmes 2.00. Or maybe I should say Clint Barmes .200?

This trade doesn't do a lot for me. McDonald is set to make $1.5 million this year so he'll make the roster. I just would've rather given a young guy a shot. Our internal options are just as good. At least we only gave up a PTBNL or cash. Nonetheless, he adds veteran experience and this means you now have Brandon Inge, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Alex Presley, and maybe even Felix Pie battling for the final bench spot with Gaby, Jose Tabata, The Fort, and McDonald. I tend to think that Hurdle will keep Inge for god knows why but maybe he'll wake up and keep the versatile Harrison or a lefty bat that is severely needed off the bench. We'll know soon enough with Opening Day two weeks away.

Coming soon I will do my 25 man roster projection, stay tuned.