The trade that all Pirates were waiting for finally went down today when the Pirates officially (finally) traded Joel Hanrahan along with Brock Holt to the Red Sox for Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, Mark Melancon, and Ivan De Jesus Jr. Hanrahan was due nearly $7 million in arbitration and after the re-signing of Jason Grilli, everyone knew the other shoe was going to drop on Hanny. Here's my view on this trade.
I think this is exactly fair value for Hanrahan. The Pirates got a MLB reliever, a MLB ready bat, and two solid prospects. Honestly, I was expecting less, like a #4 starting pitcher. The two less relevant parts of this deal was Brock Holt for De Jesus Jr. They are basically the same player but Holt is a slightly better bat and is a year younger. De Jesus Jr. has much better defense and is still above average with the bat. He translates to a much better utility man than Holt.
Pimentel is really interesting to me. He's the former #6 prospect in the Boston system and I would've compared him to Luis Heredia with the Pirates. He's really struggled in AA ball and has taken a dip as a prospect. His problems are based around his control, an issue the Pirates are very good at correcting, so he could bounce back in the Pirates system. He's 23 so not much time left. He translates as a reliever for me. Kinda like Justin Wilson where he'll start as a starter than translate to the bullpen in AAA.
Sands is the guy that really intrigues me. He has always had tons of power in the minors, hitting 25 and 29 homers the past two years in AAA with high OPS numbers. He's been in the majors in 2011 and 2012 with a few homers but an OPS of .801. That's ok with his small sample size in the majors but if he can translate that power to the majors, he will be a huge asset for years since he's under control until 2018. He's 25 so it's time he gets a full shot up here. He reminds me of another prospect the Red Sox traded for a closer last year. Josh Reddick was the centerpiece in the Andrew Bailey trade. Same type of prospect, same position. Reddick only got a full shot in the big leagues and hit 30 bombs last year. Am I saying that he'll hit 30 HRs if he plays here? Hell no. I'd expect him to mirror Garrett Jones' output in his early years. Around 15 HRs if his power translates. He is a righty though and that'll hurt him in PNC. Speaking of Jones, there question of where Sands would play. There's already a log jam in the corner outfield spots with Marte/Snider/Tabata/Presley/Jones and first base isn't much better with Jones/Sanchez/Robinson. So expect someone to get traded. Keep an eye on Garrett Jones. He's due arbitration and coming off what will likely be his best year ever. Sell high is the smart thing to do. Add another major league piece or highly rated prospect, I'm thinking SS, and let Sands and Clint Robinson battle for the right to platoon with Gaby at first. Dumping Jose Tabata's contract or aging Alex Presley could also be options.
I think the centerpiece of this deal is Melancon even if that's not what the teams believe. Mark Melancon is a carbon copy of Joel Hanrahan in 2007. Hanrahan was coming off a great year then really struggled in 2007 with the Nationals, 7.71 ERA, before the Bucs got him as a throw in in the Lastings Millidge/Nyjer Morgan deal. Melancon was acquired by Boston for Jed Lowrie, may have heard of him in Houston, and was coming off a 2.72 ERA and 20 saves with the Astros with high K rates. Then last year he got bombed early and finished with a misleading 6.20 ERA. Advanced metrics show that he is the perfect candidate for a bounce back and he very well could be the next Joel Hanrahan. Want one more eerie coincidence? Hanny was 27 when we acquired him and Melancon is also, 27. He's also under 4 years of control.
Overall I see this trade as even. It's fair value for a closer about to make $7 million and walk into free agency after this season. It's a move the Pirates had to do because it doesn't make sense for a small market team to spend 10% of its payroll on a guy playing 1% of their innings all year. We got a lot of potential. If Sands' power translates, Melancon bounces back as a strong late inning option, Pimentel makes it to the majors, and De Jesus Jr. becomes a good utility man it's a great deal for us. But just as easily they could all flop and the Red Sox could come out looking great. Only time can tell how this deal turns out but right now it looks like a fairly even trade.
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