Sunday, July 7, 2013

Trade Target: Justin Morneau


How did the Twins go from such a good team a few years back to sellers every year? I don't know what happened to them. They still have the core or most of it, same manager too. Guess they just can't recapture the magic. That or the division got tougher. Regardless, they are sellers and they have one guy the Pirates might be interested in. No, not former Pirate all-star Kevin Correia, but former league MVP Justin Morneau.

Like I said yesterday, I think first base is the Pirates biggest need, again, and an upgrade there helps the team a lot more. Morneau was once one of the best first basemen in baseball. Although he doesn't hold that title anymore, he's still a respectable player. After a slow start, especially with his power, Morneau now has 7 HRs, 52 RBIs, and a slash of .272/.331/.406 OPS .737. That's not great. He averages 28 HRs, 110 RBIs, and a slash of .279/.349/.485 OPS .834. That's misleading though and I'll explain why later. You know how I roll by now so I'll get into his RISP stats. This year it's a slash of .311/.380/.411 OPS .791 and on his career it's .287/.388/.472 OPS .860. So he's under his career average and could improve but it's not likely that it will be by that much. He's solid with the glove too so that's no liability.

Morneau has some big time problems though. First, is his numbers. His power seems to be way down this year and so are his overall stats. Like I said above, reading into his career stats is misleading. He's been really bad for the past few years. Since his best year in 2010, where he had a 1.015 OPS, his OPS has gone down to .618 in 2011, .773 last year, and stands at .737 right now. Don't look now, but it looks like Morneau is over the hill or he hasn't fully recovered from his concussion problems. Maybe new scenery can rejuvenate him, but I don't see the same player that win an AL MVP. Second issue is that he's injury prone. He's had concussions that have wrecked his career and others that have had him on the DL a ton. That's bad news when trading for a player. Finally, Morneau has a large contract. He's owed about $5 million through the end of this year and I believe he's owed over $10 million next year. That's not a price I want to pay for a declining hitter.

I'm not a fan of bringing in Morneau. If we were talking the late 2000s, I'd be salivating over that thought but it's not. It's 2013 and the numbers aren't there. We need an upgrade at first base or right field but a better option can be found. Add that to the fact that the Twins are reluctant to sell him and will have a large price and everything adds up to a no go for the Pirates. I wouldn't be shocked if NH calls Minnesota but it'll only be out of curiosity.

Tomorrow's trade target will be 1B Paul Konerko

UPDATE: Comcast Sports News in Chicago reported that the Pirates are one of six teams "strongly pursuing" Matt Garza. I wrote my trade target article and was a big fan of him. He is supposed to be traded before Saturday so it'll be interesting to see what happens, especially with the reported interest in fellow Cub Nate Schierholtz.








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