Will the Dark Knight Rise beyond 2013?

 

Recently, I've seen a lot of talk about AJ Burnett and if he could be back next season and beyond and I thought I'd throw my own thoughts into the mix

 

AJ Burnett is arguably the heart and soul of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  He is the seasoned veteran and he takes no shit from anyone.  He's single handedly changed the persona of the Pirates and it is a change I have loved witnessing.  Unfortunately, I think this could be his final season wearing the P on his chest.

 

Now it's not like I want Burnett to leave.  His production is unbelievable.  Combining this season with last year, he has thrown 331 innings going 21-17 with a 3.21 ERA.  The strikeout and walk totals are fantastic too.  His K/9 is 8.7 and his BB/9 is 3.0.  That's the stuff of an ace.  So with all of that production and the unquestioned top dog status that he has, why don't I think he's coming back?  Well I have two reasons for you.

 

First reason I don't think AJ Burnett will be back is because we already have too many pitchers for next year.  Look at the rotation already under contract.  I am assuming that Wandy Rodriguez (remember him?) will accept his player option because no one is going to give him a big deal after his injury and missed time.  Liriano's option will also vest and he'll be back.  So here it is:

 

Francisco Liriano

Wandy Rodriguez

Jeff Locke

Gerrit Cole

Justin Wilson (natural starter)

 

That is the rotation I have penciled in right now and that doesn't include Charlie Morton, Jeanmar Gomez, Kyle McPherson, Jeff Karstens, and James McDonald (remember them??) who could all be tendered offers to compete with Kyle McPherson for that last spot.  Plus looking ahead to 2014, Jameson Taillon will be coming up in June with Nick Kingham not far behind.  Zoinks Scooby!  We have depth again without AJ.  What happens if AJ is placed in the rotation and Wilson stays in the pen?  Who do you take out for Taillon let alone Kingham?  You can always have injuries but you'll have guys like Gomez and Morton ready to go if they lose guys.  So the Pirates' pitching surplus is really working against Burnett.

 

Second thing that I think hurts AJ's chances of coming back next season is money.  Yes the cheap Pirates won't be able to pay him.  I'm just joking but it would take a lot to bring in Burnett.  Don't forget, the Yankees are paying most of Burnett's salary.  Would you pay him say $10 million a year for two more years of service?  I can hear a bunch of you saying he's 37 and not worth that much but consider Ryan Dempster is making $13 million a year the next two years for Boston and he'll be 37 next season.  So really, I think that would be AJ's discount.  It'd be hard to replace that leadership but I think the Pirates could sign a cheaper option if they wished for two months to warm Taillon's spot.

 

Now I have neglected a lot of things here.  Wandy could decline his player option (in which case I'm all for paying AJ to return), Morton and the rest of the gang could be non tendered to save money and room, and AJ could take a bigger discount because he loves Pittsburgh and made a ton of money in his career.  I just know how the Pirates like to operate.  I don't think they would pay that much money to an aging Burnett when they could go after cheaper options with big guns on the way.  That leadership would be really damn hard to replace though.  Here's my solution in a perfect world.  AJ honors his promise that he made before the year that he either retires or signs with Pittsburgh, retires, and becomes an assistant pitching coach next to Ray Searage.  It would be perfect.  He could continue helping the young guys like Locke, Cole, and eventually Taillon and maintain the locker room presence without taking up a roster spot from a young guy.  Would that happen?  I don't think the likelihood is very high, but it is possible.  I'm not advocating to dump Burnett by any means.  I'd love to see him back in a Pirates uniform.  I also hope they win it all this year for him and he could go out on top if he decides to go down that path.  But unfortunately, just like Bruce Wayne, I don't think there's anything left in Gotham, I mean Pittsburgh, for AJ Burnett.