The Other Shoe Drops, Pirates Trade Joel Hanrahan

The trade that all Pirates were waiting for finally went down today when the Pirates officially (finally) traded Joel Hanrahan along with Brock Holt to the Red Sox for Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, Mark Melancon, and Ivan De Jesus Jr. Hanrahan was due nearly $7 million in arbitration and after the re-signing of Jason Grilli, everyone knew the other shoe was going to drop on Hanny. Here's my view on this trade.

I think this is exactly fair value for Hanrahan. The Pirates got a MLB reliever, a MLB ready bat, and two solid prospects. Honestly, I was expecting less, like a #4 starting pitcher. The two less relevant parts of this deal was Brock Holt for De Jesus Jr. They are basically the same player but Holt is a slightly better bat and is a year younger. De Jesus Jr. has much better defense and is still above average with the bat. He translates to a much better utility man than Holt.

Pimentel is really interesting to me. He's the former #6 prospect in the Boston system and I would've compared him to Luis Heredia with the Pirates. He's really struggled in AA ball and has taken a dip as a prospect. His problems are based around his control, an issue the Pirates are very good at correcting, so he could bounce back in the Pirates system. He's 23 so not much time left. He translates as a reliever for me. Kinda like Justin Wilson where he'll start as a starter than translate to the bullpen in AAA.

Sands is the guy that really intrigues me. He has always had tons of power in the minors, hitting 25 and 29 homers the past two years in AAA with high OPS numbers. He's been in the majors in 2011 and 2012 with a few homers but an OPS of .801. That's ok with his small sample size in the majors but if he can translate that power to the majors, he will be a huge asset for years since he's under control until 2018. He's 25 so it's time he gets a full shot up here. He reminds me of another prospect the Red Sox traded for a closer last year. Josh Reddick was the centerpiece in the Andrew Bailey trade. Same type of prospect, same position. Reddick only got a full shot in the big leagues and hit 30 bombs last year. Am I saying that he'll hit 30 HRs if he plays here? Hell no. I'd expect him to mirror Garrett Jones' output in his early years. Around 15 HRs if his power translates. He is a righty though and that'll hurt him in PNC. Speaking of Jones, there question of where Sands would play. There's already a log jam in the corner outfield spots with Marte/Snider/Tabata/Presley/Jones and first base isn't much better with Jones/Sanchez/Robinson. So expect someone to get traded. Keep an eye on Garrett Jones. He's due arbitration and coming off what will likely be his best year ever. Sell high is the smart thing to do. Add another major league piece or highly rated prospect, I'm thinking SS, and let Sands and Clint Robinson battle for the right to platoon with Gaby at first. Dumping Jose Tabata's contract or aging Alex Presley could also be options.

I think the centerpiece of this deal is Melancon even if that's not what the teams believe. Mark Melancon is a carbon copy of Joel Hanrahan in 2007. Hanrahan was coming off a great year then really struggled in 2007 with the Nationals, 7.71 ERA, before the Bucs got him as a throw in in the Lastings Millidge/Nyjer Morgan deal. Melancon was acquired by Boston for Jed Lowrie, may have heard of him in Houston, and was coming off a 2.72 ERA and 20 saves with the Astros with high K rates. Then last year he got bombed early and finished with a misleading 6.20 ERA. Advanced metrics show that he is the perfect candidate for a bounce back and he very well could be the next Joel Hanrahan. Want one more eerie coincidence? Hanny was 27 when we acquired him and Melancon is also, 27. He's also under 4 years of control.

Overall I see this trade as even. It's fair value for a closer about to make $7 million and walk into free agency after this season. It's a move the Pirates had to do because it doesn't make sense for a small market team to spend 10% of its payroll on a guy playing 1% of their innings all year. We got a lot of potential. If Sands' power translates, Melancon bounces back as a strong late inning option, Pimentel makes it to the majors, and De Jesus Jr. becomes a good utility man it's a great deal for us. But just as easily they could all flop and the Red Sox could come out looking great. Only time can tell how this deal turns out but right now it looks like a fairly even trade.

Pirates Sign Francisco Liriano

The Pirates signed Francisco Liriano to a 2 year $14 million deal today. The 29 year old southpaw is the definition of inconsistent. In 2006 with the Twins he posted an ERA under 3.00 and had another strong season in 2008 after missing the 2007 season. Every other year (minus his 3.91 ERA in 2010) he has an ERA in the upper 4.00 or 5.00 and higher. He was below average in 2012 after starting off terribly with the Twins, being demoted to the pen, having a nice stretch of starts, then being traded to the White Sox and having a sub par season with them.

He has tons of upside but he plays awful at times and it's not just every now and then. I like that he's a lefty coming into PNC Park. The NL shift and the stadium shift should help him out. I also like that if he struggles we have the depth to move him to the pen (something he's very familiar with) and bring up a younger guy until he gets on his feet. I also like his massive strikeout numbers. He averaged a 9.6 K/9 last year which is big for a starting pitcher.

Now this has a large impact on Joel Hanrahan. It's been rumored that we want a starting pitcher for him. Well, with a rotation of Burnett, Rodriguez, McDonald, Liriano, and McPherson/Locke/other less likely possibilities I think the rotation is complete. So that means start looking for trades for hitters or prospects rather than pitchers. This also boosts the payroll quite a bit so I would still expect them to move him. I've heard the Red Sox are the top contenders and they want a deal for one of their relievers. That's not enough. I like their outfielder Nava if they'd give him up. Maybe a Pedro Ciriaco reunion? Who knows. I just expect him to be traded but for something other than a starter now.

Is this a good deal? I'm not sure yet. It depends on which Liriano you're able to get. The Liriano that's anywhere near 2006-2008 capability, 2009, 2011-2012 below average Liriano, or the average 2010 Liriano. For $7 mill a year, he needs to be the first or last version I mentioned. Can't afford to be anything less. I like how Tom Singer, Pirates Reporter for MLB.com, put it. This is basically Liriano for Correia and we need to hope this works out better than Bedard for Maholm did last year.

Get Your Grilled Cheese Ready!

Jason Grilli re-signed with the Pirates today for 2 years and $7 million. Good deal in my opinion because I thought he'd cost more. Rumor is he turned down more money to stay which makes me happy because it shows me loyalty is not completely dead in the MLB. We gave him his great opportunity and he payed us back for it. Grilli struck out 13.8 batters per 9 innings last year and if he can replicate that, this will be a steal. Pretty good for a guy we got for absolutely nothing 2 years ago. In the big picture however this means we can trade Hanrahan and be confident with Grilli as the closer. I'm sure the Pirates put some things in place during the Winter Meetings regarding Hanrahan trades that were contingent on Grilli re-signing so I'd expect Hanrahan to be traded as early as this week right before Piratefest. Teams to watch on that front: Tigers, Dodgers, and Mariners. All are interested in him and we could get a starter like Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Rick Porcello, or Jason Vargas in return. Overall, I'm happy with the deal and it helps us in much more ways than it hurts.