Pirates Fail At the Deadline (Again)

Tampa Bay.com

Tell me if you've heard this before, the Pirates make zero trades at the trade deadline.  If you're thinking that's the same thing that happened as last year, you would be correct.  And my reaction this year is the same as it was last year.  The Pirates failed.  I'm not sure if I'm more disappointed this year or last year.

Last year, the Pirates had more glaring holes last year and didn't make any moves so I guess it was last year but it's still disappointing today.  It's not disappointing that they didn't get David Price or because they didn't get Jon Lester.  No one expected us to get those guys.  We were just rumored to and I wrote more about that over on Rant Sports.  It's disappointing because the Pirates didn't fill their holes that are causing them to lose games and the teams around them did.

The team needed a relief pitcher for the seventh inning.  There is no one that is trustworthy beyond Tony Watson and Mark Melancon.  Justin Wilson blew the game last night.  Ernesto Frieri has blown several games.  Who are you going to trot out there now?  I guess those same guys so they can keep blowing games.

The team needed a right handed bat off of the bench.  They have the worst offense in the national league against left handed hitters.  Unless you plan on calling up Jose Tabata again, that's not going to change.  So I guess we will send out the same old lineup that will continue to not hit lefties.

And on top of that, other teams in the central upgraded.  The Cardinals upgraded their rotation with John Lackey.  The Brewers upgraded their offense with Gerardo Parra.  The Pirates upgraded nothing.  I'm not sure how we can expect the Pirates to still outplay both of these teams.  Well, I think the Brewers are going to fall out of contention, but the Cardinals aren't.  They got better and opened up a spot for their own version of Gregory Polanco.  Can we beat that team?  Only time will tell.

I'm hoping that the Pirates will be able to do something in July again like they did last year, but it is just really hard to defend the team when there were some pretty good buyer trades today on the market.  Especially, with players the Pirates could have used, such as Emilio Bonifacio and James Russell going to the Braves.  I believe in this management team and I believe in the Pirates but this is a big, big blow for anyone's confidence in the Pirates.

Pirates Trade Rumors: David Price

CBS Sports

I have no tweet for this but last night, JP Morosi said that the favorites for Price would be the losers of the Lester sweepstakes and mentioned the Pirates by name.

Price is probably the second best pitcher in the game and it would take a king's ransom to pry him from the red hot Rays.  But here's something to consider.  The Rays have been hot but they have virtually gained zero ground in that time.  The Rays' ears are apparently still open and the Rays have been scouting the Pirates farm system a ton recently so this isn't completely out of the realm of possibility.

This would obviously require at least two top five prospects, hopefully Josh Bell and Nick Kingham, and I don't think the Pirates would make a trade like that.  But the idea of giving up prospects now and then flipping Price in the offseason for more prospects could be something that intrigues the Pirates.

More updates will come if there are more solid reports about Price to the Pirates.

UPDATE: Joel Sherman has just said on MLB Network that Price is likely to be traded with the Mariners and Pirates as possibilities.  More hopefully to com.

UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal named the Pirates as a possible destination for Price along with the Dodgers.

UPDATE: Jon Heyman mentions the Pirates as a possible front runner for Price.

UPDATE: Now Rob Biertempfel believes we ARE IN on David Price.  This is getting very serious.

UPDATE: Rob Rossi reports on 93.7 The Fan that the Pirates are in on David Price and they are discussing players that are on the roster.

UPDATE: Many reports are saying a three team trade is involved with Price.

Pirates Trade Rumors: Emilio Bonifacio

Zimbio

Another rumor has come across the wire.  The Pirates are apparently interested in super utility man Emilio Bonifacio and the Cubs' relievers.

#Cubs feel will deal Bonifacio #Pirates #Reds #Orioles #Royals #Mariners all have inquired. Cubs also could move LHR Russell/Wright
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) July 31, 2014

Bonifacio doesn't seem like someone the Pirates could use but he actually is a perfect fit.  The Pirates need a right-handed bat off of the bench and to possibly platoon with Polanco.  Bonifacio has an OPS of 1.024 against lefties this year.  That's very good.  Bonifacio could also take the Josh Harrison role since it looks like Harrison is now the starting third baseman.

The Pirates could also use the Cubs' lefty reliever Wesley Wright.  He is having a good year and could be a nice middle inning relief option for the Pirates.  Wright is a bit of a lefty specialist but he could come cheap.

More updates as the rumors keep coming

Pirates Trade Rumors: John Lackey

Boston Herald

This is a busy busy day for me.  I'm trying to keep track of all of the rumors and write my thoughts for you.  Today's first rumor is that John Lackey is drawing the Pirates' interest.

#Pirates also looking at John Lackey
— Danny Demilio (@MLBDemilio) July 31, 2014

Lackey is having a great year with a 7.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and an ERA of 3.60.  His xFIP is also 3.35 so that even stands to improve.  Lackey also has a good playoff record and could anchor a Pirates' rotation in a playoff run.

The thing that makes Lackey really interesting is that he has a team option for league minimum next year.  He obviously doesn't want to pitch for that so the team that acquires him could re-work his deal to maybe add an extra year and he could be something like an AJ Burnett here but with better stats.  But worst case, we could exercise that option.

The price for Lackey would be steep but if it's something centered around maybe Nick Kingham, I'd be interested.  More news coming as the rumors develop.

UPDATE: John Lackey has been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals.  I think the Pirates definitely need to respond now with a starting pitcher.

It's Time for the Pirates to go All-In

BoSoxInjection.com

Well I didn't want to write about Jon Lester but I'm going to now.  The Pirates are seen as the favorites to get Jon Lester now and this shocks me.  I'm not going to embed tweets because I'm typing like a maniac and Lester could be traded literally any second.  But the Pirates are actually serious suitors for Lester and I'm all for it.

I'm not going to look up his stats because we all know he's ridiculously good.  He's not even human in the playoffs, he just obliterates everything and everyone.  The question that everyone is asking is what the price is going to be for a rental like Lester.  The answer is steep.

Lester is one of the best pitchers in the league and even a rental version of that is going to require top prospects.  And by that I mean that I mean some combo of Josh Bell, Nick Kingham and Alen Hanson plus more.  Sound steep?  Well guess what.  They should do it.

Look at all of those prospects.  Are they really going to break the future?  Are any of those prospects really impact prospects for the Pirates?  The answer is no.  Bell is blocked by the outfield of the future.  Yes, he could move to first base but how do you know he's going to succeed there?  Nick Kingham is a #3 starter at best.  We have plenty of those in the system.  Alen Hanson has been suspended by the Curve multiple times this season.  Do any of these guys have a huge impact for the Pirates?  No they just don't.

So why can't we trade these prospects?  There is no acceptable answer for that.  Trading prospects is an inexact science.  The Phillies traded 3 top prospects for Cliff Lee and none of those prospects made a big impact in the show.  But then the Brewers traded similar top prospects for Zack Greinke and those players are now leading the Royals into playoff contention.  It's risky but it's a risk the Pirates have to take.

You have a farm system for two reasons.  To develop prospects to contribute for you and to trade prospects to acquire talent that can contribute for you.  It's time for the Pirates to do the latter and start parting with prospects.  They have the best farm system in baseball and trading some prospects is not jeopardizing the future.  The future is now.  It's time to put on the big boy pants and make a big deal to help the present team.  And I hope that's what NH does today.  Only time will tell.

Trade Profiles: Tony Sipp

MLB.Astros.com

Well there were no real big rumors for the Pirates yesterday so if there aren't today or tomorrow this will be my final trade profile before the trade deadline.  And it's on a non interesting name but definitely an interesting target.  Tony Sipp started the season in the Padres farm system on a minor league contract.  He opted out and signed with the Astros where he has been dominant.  Although the Pirates haven't been linked to him I think they are asking about him.

The first cool thing with Sipp, he is a former 45th round pick!  Nobody drafted that low is supposed to make it this far.  I just thought that was pretty awesome.  Anyway, back to the real stats, Sipp is a lefty reliever with a K/9 of 12.22, BB/9 of 2.56, WHIP of 0.82, and ERA of 2.27.  His ERA should stay around there with his FIP and xFIP of 2.50 and 2.39.

Sipp also has other perks.  Because he was signed as a minor league free agent and then to the majors, his salary is pretty low.  His prospect cost should be low too since the Astros signed him for basically nothing.  Sipp also does not have any extreme splits so he is not a lefty specialist and Clint Hurdle can't misuse him.

On to the bad.  There isn't much.  He's only 31 so he's not ridiculously old.  Not a big injury past.  But there's a reason Sipp started the year in Triple A.  He's been unstable with ERAs over four the past three seasons.  You could say Sipp is a one year wonder and could revert back to his bad pitching at any time but his advanced metrics don't suggest it.

Overall, if there's any reliever on the market that the Pirates can get for cheap and still be a great late inning option, it's Sipp.  No one is talking about him and he strikes out a ton of guys.  That's exactly what the Pirates need in this market.  I would not be surprised if Neal Huntington throws feelers everywhere and then comes back to Sipp because he is the best value.  I think there is a high possibility that Sipp is a Pirate by the 31st.

Trade Profiles: LaTroy Hawkins

Talk-Sports.net

I thought today was going to be my last trade profile but then, of course, the Twitter machine gets in the way of that.  I was not going to write a trade profile on LaTroy Hawkins but since the Pirates are apparently linked to him, here we go.

In-game reading: #Pirates believed to be interested in #Rockies Hawkins http://t.co/0K1RA9IhDD
— Thomas Harding (@harding_at_mlb) July 27, 2014

Hawkins is as seasoned of a veteran as you're going to get.  He's 41 years of age and he is well traveled.  He's in his second stint with the Rockies and he is performing fine as their closer.  His stat line goes something like this, a 4.37 K/9, a 2.31 BB/9, a 1.20 WHIP, and finally an ERA of 3.09.  He is primed to regress though with his FIP and xFIP coming in at 3.68 and 4.35.

Hawkins also provides some intangibles to the Pirates if you're a strong believer in that stuff.  He is known as a fantastic clubhouse guy and a good leader.  Clint Hurdle has talked about his leadership on the 2007 Rockies team that made the World Series.  Another thing about Hawkins is that he has only made 37 appearances this year, so he is pretty fresh.

And now for the bad that comes with Hawkins.  Like I said, he is 41 and with that age comes injury risk.  The big concern I have with him is that he strikes nobody out.  His K/9 is pitiful and it is the lowest he's had since 2006.  The Pirates need someone who will strike players out, not pitch to contact.

Overall, Hawkins would be a guy I would add in only one instance.  And that's if you do not trust Jared Hughes.  Hughes is the exact same pitcher as Hawkins but he is pitching better.  But Hawkins can also provide that leadership.  So replacing Hawkins with Hughes could be a tiny upgrade.  He can't be the guy who comes in and takes the seventh inning role.  But regardless, the fact that he has the intangibles the Pirates look for and he played for Clint Hurdle in Colorado tells me he could be a Pirate soon.  Also, with a seller's market and not much interest in Hawkins, he could be a bargain.  I just hope if NH does trade for Hawkins, it isn't the only reliever he adds.

Trade Profiles: Boston Red Sox

SB Nation

Who would have thought that a year after winning the World Series, the Boston Red Sox would be in last place in the AL East and big time sellers on the trade market.  Well, that's what has happened and the Pirates would be smart to swoop in.  The Sox have both starters and relievers the Pirates could be interested in, so I thought I'd profile a few.

Yesterday I profiled Jon Lester along with David Price so most of these guys will be bullpen pieces.  First off, Andrew Miller is a guy I think the Pirates will be most interested in.  His stats indicate absolute dominance.  He has an absurd K/9 of 14.64, BB/9 of 2.75, WHIP of 0.94, and ERA of 2.52.  That ERA is going to get lower however as his FIP and xFIP are 1.77 and 1.82 respectively.  Miller is a rental this year that can be had on the cheap and maybe even brought back next year for cheap.  Miller is a lefty and does perform better against lefties but still dominates the right side of the plate as well.

Next up, we have Junichi Tazawa.  I know what you're thinking.  After guys like Hisanori Takayashi or however you spell it and Akinori Iwamoura, you don't want any more oriental guys.  Well Tazawa might change your mind.  He's having a fairly good year so far.  He has a K/9 of 9.23, BB/9 of 2.25, WHIP of 1.28, and an ERA of 3.15.  His ERA should hover around there with a FIP and xFIP of 2.82 and 3.08.  Tazawa is not a rental as he has two more years of arbitration.  With that in mind I looked at all of his major stats and he is pitching like this every year.  So he is consistently good.  The extra years should make the prospect cost about the same as Miller.

Finally, I want to profile Felix Doubront.  Doubront is a lefty starter and reliever in the Red Sox pen that kind of reminds me of Stolmy Pimental.  This season, his stats are not very favorable.  Split between a few starts and relief appearances, Doubront has a 2-4 record with a K/9 of 6.60, BB/9 rate of 3.68, WHIP of 1.48, and ERA of 5.22 but that does stand to come down to due to a FIP and xFIP of 5.00 and 4.78.  Doubront is interesting because he could compete for a rotation job next year too.  He's cheap money wise and should be very cheap prospect wise.  The only question I have is what would we do with him this season?  He isn't effective at all and we can't add another reclamation project to the bullpen.

So overall, I love the idea of getting Andrew Miller, like the idea of getting Junichi Tazawa, and lukewarm about adding Doubront.  Miller would provide a huge boost in the seventh inning and create a devastating 1, 2, 3 punch with Watson and Melancon.  Tazawa would be a great middle innings guy.  He could replace Gomez or Hughes in that role, pitching in tie games or in the sixth/seventh inning if someone has a day off.  Doubront could be a force next year after spending time with Ray Searage but there's really nothing he can do to help the team now.  So it will be interesting to see if the Pirates grab any of these Red Sox pieces.

Trade Profiles David Price and Jon Lester

ESPN

I didn't want to do this.  I really did not want to have to write an article on these two guys but now I have too after Ken Rosenthal reported that the Pirates had two high level scouts watching both pitchers duke it out last night.  They're the two biggest names on the market and the Pirates need starting pitching so I'll write about them.

#SFGiants, #Pirates each have two high-level scouts watching Price-Lester tonight in St. Petersburg.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 26, 2014

I'm not going to bore you by going to look up Price and Lester's stats.  We all know both pitchers are amazing and their stats are just going to indicate that.  I would also say something about them being left handed pitchers and that would help them even more at PNC Park.  But instead, I'm going to focus on the cost of these two players.

When aces like this go on the market they are going to command a king's ransom.  Price and Lester are probably going to command a top 100 hitter and a top 100 pitcher plus more.  Possible prospects the Pirates would have to give up would be some combination of Josh Bell, Austin Meadows, Reese McGuire, Alen Hanson, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham.  And that's just a start.

And look at these guy's situations.  Price is making $14 million this season and will make $18-20 million next year through arbitration.  The Pirates can't afford to pay one player that much money.  Lester is only a rental and he has indicated that even if traded he would want to come back to Boston.  Do the Pirates want to be the dummies that trade prospects for Lester and then the Red Sox get him back regardless?

And finally, I'm not sure either of these pitchers are going to get traded.  The Rays have been surging recently and have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.  The Red Sox want to lock up Lester long term.  Would they really take the risk of trading him and letting him hit the open market?

This is why I didn't want to write this article.  All of these trades are just unrealistic and give fans false hope that the Pirates are going to acquire one of them.  I'll leave you with this, when the Brewers made that big splash in 2011 and added Zack Grenkie, they gave up Alcides Escobar and Salvador Perez among others.  Those are the two key players that are pushing the Royals into the playoff race this season.  Do you want to look back on the Pirates making a similar trade and wonder "what if those prospects weren't traded for that?"  I certainly don't and I know Neal Huntington won"t either.  Stop dreaming guys, Price and Lester won't be wearing black and gold this decade.

Trade Profiles: Josh Willingham

USA Today

It's funny, this is the third year I am doing trade profiles and the past two years it seemed like I was only writing about position players.  Big bats if you will.  And this year I didn't think I would be writing about any bats because the offense has been solid.  But, one interesting rumor I saw had the Bucs interested in Josh Willingham.  So here's your only profile on a bat.

Reds and Pirates two of a few teams to monitor on the Willingham trade front. Reds offered him a 2 year deal before he chose the #MNTwins.
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) July 22, 2014

Willingham is a bat the Pirates have been rumored to be interested for the past three years but the Twins refused to deal him because he was under team control.  Well, he's not anymore.  He's in his final year and for a contract year, he is putting up some pretty lousy numbers.   His triple slash is .207/.352/.402 for an OPS of .754.  For a low average, Willingham sure does get on base and that's something the Pirates are very good at this year.  Willingham also has 9 HRs, a higher walk rate than last year and a lower strikeout rate than last year.

I guess there is a lot to like about Willingham, but where in the world would the guy play?  Well when you notice that he thumps left handed pitching, the answer becomes clear.  He could replace Gaby Sanchez in the first place platoon.  In addition to good things regarding Willingham, is he is only making $7 million this year and the rest of the salary is prorated.

Now the bad.  Willingham is an outfielder by trade.  He does not have a ton of reps at 1B but has played the position before.  He's also a very inconsistent player.  He is hot for awhile, then cold for awhile.  If you don't like Pedro's streaks, you won't like Willingham in Pittsburgh.  Other than that, there aren't many negatives.  Prospect price should be cheap, salary not too high, etc.

When I first saw this rumor, I said no way.  But now examining it, I like it.  Willingham hits lefties as well as Gaby but has more of a power bat.  The Pirates are last in the majors in HRs off of left handed pitching.  Willingham could help that for sure.  It actually makes a ton of sense if he can play 1B.  That's the wildcard.  IF he can play there it could be a great buy low option.  Don't be surprised if Willingham ends up in Pittsburgh by the end of the month.

Trade Profiles: Arizona Diamondbacks

Zimbio.com

The Pirates are still in their quest to acquire another bullpen arm.  Last night, one of those arms got traded.  Joakim Soria was traded to the Tigers but never fear there are still plenty of options.  For example, Jon Morosi tweeted that the Pirates were scouting the Diamondbacks' bullpen.

Pirates have been scouting DBacks relievers. Of note: A lefty by the name of Oliver Perez is part of the Arizona bullpen.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 23, 2014

How about that.  Oliver Perez back in a Pirate uniform?  That would be pretty awesome.  But would it be an upgrade?  Well Perez is pitching very well so far this season.   He has a staggering 10.77 K/9, a 3.11 BB/9, 1.12 WHIP, and an ERA of 1.94.  His FIP does suggest regression though as it is 2.50 and his xFIP is 3.27.

Good things about Perez would then extend to his contract, which is very team affordable through next season.  He pitches well against lefties and righties so he isn't a specialist.  Also, just the fact that Ollie would be coming back to Pittsburgh after all of his struggles after leaving the city.  It just seems like a good homecoming.

Another possible target in the Dback bullpen would be Brad Ziegler.  Ziegler is a side arm pitcher and is very effective with it.  Stats show that Ziegler could be the perfect fit for the Pirates.  He has a K/9 of 7.82, BB/9 of 3.02, WHIP of 1.14, and ERA of 2.84 but his FIP and xFIP are higher too at 3.30 and 3.15.

Ziegler is a rental and owed a prorated salary of $3.25 million this season and would then be a free agent.  He doesn't have specialist type splits.  And the most impressive thing about Ziegler is that he is a groundball machine.  He gets groundballs at a higher rate than Charlie Morton and Jared Hughes.  With the Pirates' advanced defense, Ziegler could pitch even better than his FIP and xFIP indicate.

The problem with both of these players is that the Diamondbacks are for some reason looking to hold on to some players.  They are one of the worst teams in the MLB right now but they only want to sell a lot of their appealing pieces.  But if they do decide to sell or it's just a smokescreen, the Pirates have to look into it.  If they can rob the Dbacks blind (they traded Ian Kennedy to the Padres for a relief pitcher) then it could be the best value in a seller's market.

Should the Pirates Consider Trading Starling Marte to the Mariners?

Fox Sports

Yesterday, the twittersphere almost broke with news that the Seattle Mariners were going after Starling Marte.  Yes that Starling Marte.  And then, Marte was not in the lineup only minutes later.  It reminded me of that scene with the Joker in the Dark Knight.  If Josh Harrison isn't in the lineup nobody cares because it's part of the plan.  But if Starling Marte isn't in the lineup, then everyone just loses their minds!  John Perrotto was the initial man to break the news in an article for the Beaver County times but the story was picked up by Bob Dutton in Seattle.  I'll caution you all that teams "check in" on players often just to get a feel of what is available.  It happens every year.  I'm sure team's still call about Cutch but those just never hit the rumor mill.  So with that in mind, let's examine this rumor.

Report says #Mariners are showing interest in Pirates outfielder Starling Marte. http://t.co/EZbNQuPMOl
— Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) July 22, 2014

The Pirates have their "dream outfield" with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco.  But they also have prospects in the outfield that could be just as good on the way, namely Josh Bell.  So that has led some to wonder if one of them could be traded in the future.  But I don't think anyone thought this soon.  Anyway, let's look at how much of a trade chip Marte could be.  He was just signed to a 5 year $31 million extension with two options.  So he has a pretty team friendly contract.  He's a plus defender, has plus speed and possibly the best arm in the game.  He can bat anywhere in the order.  He has a ton of value to a team like the Mariners who have zero quality outfielders.  They are desperate for an outfielder.  And desperate teams, make stupid trades.

Here is the proposed, possible return for Marte.  It starts with Taijuan Walker.  Walker is one of the top ten prospects in baseball and is one hell of a pitcher.  He is 21 and has already had time in the big leagues.  He is only going to get better with a plus fastball and cutter.  He's also got a good chance to develop a plus change up.  He has the same potential as a Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow.  Only difference is he's major league ready now and would be under control for several years.

The next piece would be one of Nick Franklin and Chris Taylor.  Both are shortstops and Franklin has seen time in the big leagues albeit disappointing.  Both guys are good defenders at the position and both have put up really good hitting numbers in Triple A.  Both are major league ready and could fill a void at SS in the long term for the Pirates.

The last piece would have to be either another prospect of a good reliever.  I would take the prospect and specifically Jesus Montero.  He's a switch hitting first baseman and a former top prospect when with the Yankees.  He's crushing the ball in Triple A, especially against lefties, and the Mariners seem to have given up on him.  He could replace Gaby Sanchez in a platoon or he could start hitting righties and become a full time first baseman with the Bucs.

Looking at that return, it is a lot to digest.  That is three current/former top 100 prospects, one of which was in the top 5.  That would be a huge boost to the long term success of the team.  But it may hurt the short term.  None of those guys is going to fill the void left in left field.  Josh Harrison can try but he probably won't succeed.  Taijuan Walker may fix the rotation in the short term if he can provide a Gerrit Cole like impact.  Taylor/Franklin could be a much better bench option than Clint Barmes/Michael Martinez.  And Jesus Montero could be a huge boost if he regains that top prospect form and keeps destroying baseballs in the majors.

With all this in mind, if that was the trade that was on the table from the Mariners, I would take it.  Starling Marte is a great player but you're getting three key players who are major league ready in return.  That is not something that happens very often if not ever.  With the Cubs having tons of hitting help coming soon the Pirates could combat with a rotation of Cole, Walker, Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham.  That's FOUR aces on one team.  That pitching staff would be unhittable in the years to come.  Add the offense Cutch, Polanco and Josh Bell would provide and this team would be right up their with the Cubs year after year.

This is a trade that would hurt the Pirates' playoff chances in the future but it would give a humungous boost to the team's World Series chances for the next 5-7 years.  And that is something I would want to see.  I think this is all moot because there is probably a 0.00000000000000001% chance Marte gets traded but it is sure fun to think about and fun to discuss.

Trade Profiles: Bartolo Colon

Getty Images

Sometimes I hate the Pirates fan base.  Yesterday I saw a tweet from Danny Knobler of ESPN New York that stated the Mets were really trying to move Bartolo Colon.  I suggested that the Pirates should go after him and my responses lit up.  I got fat jokes and just plain "NO!"  But really, Bartolo may be the best option for the Pirates to fix their rotation problems.

Heard Mets trying hard to move Bartolo Colon, which isn’t exactly a surprise. Also no surprise: Dodgers trying hard to move Kemp.
— Danny Knobler (@DannyKnobler) July 22, 2014

Look, Bartolo may not look like a prime pitcher to trade for but the guy has stats you can't ignore.  He has a record of 8-8 ERA 4.12 with a K/9 of 6.75 and a BB/9 of 1.28.  Colon's FIP is 3.57 and his xFIP is 3.72.  So he's going to get even better.  Things I especially like about Bartolo is that that is his highest K/9 rate since 2007 and those are his best advanced metrics since 2011.  He is having himself a career year even if he looks worse than he did with the A's last year.

Colon is a fantastic buy low candidate here.  With those stats and the fact that the Mets are "trying hard" to get rid of him should make this a great trade chance.  You could pick this guy up for next to nothing and insert him as the #3 guy in our rotation just like that.  It just seems like such a no brainer to me.  And with that in mind, I'll go over some of the bad things about Colon.

Colon is an old man I'll give you that.  He is 41 years old and that can come with regression and injuries but Bartolo has shown signs of neither.  Colon's contract is also an issue.  He is owed a prorated portion of $8 million this season and he also has a guaranteed second year next year at $11 million.  Now that second year will make the Pirates take pause, much like AJ Burnett's, but I have a solution.  Get the Mets to pay half of it.  If they are truly this desperate to dump Colon, they can pick up some salary and get a somewhat decent but not great prospect.  That way if he doesn't perform next year, the Pirates can DFA him without eating that huge salary, much like they did with Wandy this year.

Overall, I think the Pirates and Bartolo Colon are a match made in heaven.  We talked to Colon in the offseason.  We have had good dealings with the Mets recently.  We know each other's farm systems.  A deal can come together quickly.  I love the idea of Ian Kennedy first but if the price is too much, Bartolo is a great fallback plan.  He is fat, he is old, he only throws one pitch most of the time.  Those are not reasons to hate him unless he doesn't contribute.  Pirate fans need to open their eyes and see that Bartolo Colon is one of the best pitchers on the market and can be had for cheap.  It's a perfect match and I hope NH at least explores it.

Trade Profiles: Antonio Bastardo

Picture Credit: ESPN

The rumors are just flying now on Twitter.  The Pirates are getting linked to a different player everyday.  Last night the Pirates were connected to Philadelphia lefty Antonio Bastardo by Fox Sports Reporter, Jon Morosi and Trib beat writer Rob Biertempfel.  So what does he bring to the table other than a fantastic name?

Scouts from Tigers, Blue Jays and Pirates -- all with interest in Antonio Bastardo -- saw him throw 1 shutout inning tonight with 2 K's.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 22, 2014

Per @jcrasnick, #Pirates are among 10 teams with scouts in Philly tonight. I'd think lefty Antonio Bastardo is one possible target for Bucs.
— Rob Biertempfel (@BiertempfelTrib) July 21, 2014

Well Bastardo is not going to come in and pitch the 8th inning and be a back of the pen reliever.  That's not who he is.  He's going to be a middle relief guy who comes in for the 6th or 7th inning.  He's a lot like Justin Wilson just with less velocity.  Bastardo's stats are almost Wilson esque too.  He carries a K/9 of 10.92, WHIP of 1.10 (second lowest in his career) and an ERA of 3.30.  Now here's where it gets weird.  You know how I love FIP and xFIP.  Well, Bastardo's FIP shows room for improvement as it is 3.10.  But his xFIP shows regression, as it is 4.01.  I tend to trust xFIP more so I think I'm going to go with that.

Bastardo has his problems.  That xFIP scares me a bit.  And I didn't mention his walk rate for a reason.  His BB/9 is 4.95.  That is ridiculously high.  Relievers who walk a ton of batters are not ideal for any team let alone the Pirates.  Lastly, he doesn't get very many ground balls like other Pirate pitchers.  And since he's a lefty that can work better at PNC but ground ball pitchers are much more preferred.

Now for the good involving Bastardo.  He can be brought back next year for around $2 million, according to Biertempfel.  That's cheap and the Pirates can afford that making him less of a rental.  Also, he is exactly what Clint Hurdle likes to use.  Bastardo isn't a lefty specialist.  His splits indicate he performs just as well against hitters on both sides of the plate.  This deadline scares me because I think Neal Huntington could grab a lefty specialist and then Clint Hurdle would use him against righties too and the guy will get bombed.  That would not be a fear if the Pirates acquired Bastardo.

Overall, I'm indifferent to the idea of bringing in Bastardo.  He could help in the middle innings and you can never have too many lefties.  He would probably provide a slight upgrade too.  So if the Pirates can get him for little to nothing (since Ruben Amaro Jr. is an idiot this is likely) I say go for it.  Just make sure you don't throw AJ Burnett into the package.

Trade Profiles: Joaquin Benoit

Picture Credit: fansided.com

Earlier this week, the Pirates were connected to San Diego Padres starting pitcher Ian Kennedy and I wrote a trade profile on him yesterday.  Last night, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports connected the Pirates to a San Diego Padre pitcher, this time it was set up man and the team's new closer after the Huston Street deal, Joaquin Benoit.  Heyman also noted that the Pirates were interested in Joakim Soria, who I also profiled days ago.

tigers, pirates, indians eye padres' benoit, but trade "up in air." http://t.co/3yki8wbIY2

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 21, 2014

Now let's take a peak at Benoit's stats.  He is currently striking out a ton with his K/9 of  10.40 and he's not walking many with a BB/9 of 2.43.  His WHIP is a stellar 0.84.  Finally, Benoit's ERA is a sparkling 1.99. But look deeper at his FIP and xFIP.  He is in line to regress to the tune of a 2.60 and 2.98 ERA.  That is mostly because he has an unsustainable stranded runner rate.  That likely regression is just one reason I am skeptical of Benoit and his otherwise stellar stats.

Since this is my third trade profile on a Padre pitcher you should know by now that Petco Park is very pitcher friendly and one should look at the splits home and away to see if the pitcher is just succeeding because of the ball park.  That was not the case with the other two pitchers but it is for Benoit.  His home ERA is 1.14 while his ERA away from Petco is 3.18.  Those splits will make any team take pause.

Benoit also has more problems aside from his on field stats.  He is owed $8 million next season on top of his prorated $8 million this season.  He also has an option for $8 million in 2016.  That is WAY too much money to pay for Benoit.  Also, the Padres want a similar haul to what they got for Huston Street.  And that was a lot.  Add to the fact that they would have to eat some salary and the Pirates would have to give up a very good prospect to get him.  Benoit is also 36 years old.  And we all saw how age affected Jason Grilli this season.  Old relievers are volatile.  Benoit may look like he's worth the money he's making now but next year he may not.  Do you really want to be stuck in that situation if you're the Pirates?

There is only one way I see the Pirates getting Joaquin Benoit in any deal.  Only if it's a package deal with Ian Kennedy.  It could just require a minor upgrade in a proposed Kennedy deal.  The Padres can eat cash and get one more better prospect that they wouldn't get otherwise.  But if the Pirates are going after Benoit exclusively, he's just not a fit for the team.  It's just not the style of the front office to go after a reliever like Benoit and I would be shocked if they landed him.

Trade Profiles: Ian Kennedy

Picture Credit: zimbio.com

I love when this time of year when rumors about the Pirates fly their way into my twitter feed.  It just make the job of choosing who to profile next easier.  This is a great example of that right now as Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the Pirates were one of the teams scouting Ian Kennedy on Friday.  This was music to my ears.

#Pirates, #Royals among teams that scouted #Padres’ Kennedy last night. Pirates looking for SP and RP. Royals keeping all options open.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 19, 2014

Kennedy was a traded to the Padres from the Diamondbacks last season because he was having a poor year.  When he arrived in San Diego he turned it around in a hurry and hasn't looked back.  Kennedy brings to the table a 7-9 record with a K/9 of 9.53, BB/9 of 2.57, a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 3.62.  But you should all know the drill by now.  His FIP shows he should have an ERA of 2.97 and an xFIP of 3.23.  So there is room for Kennedy to get even better.  And if you're thinking he's only performing well because he's pitching most of his games at Petco Park, think again.  Kennedy has a 3.06 ERA away from Petco compared to the 4.18 ERA he has when pitching there.

Kennedy is also not a rental pitcher.  He has one more arbitration eligible season where he will probably get a raise from the $6 million he's making this season.  So my guess would be he'd get close to $9 million in arbitration next year.  That's a price the Pirates can pay for a pitcher of this quality.  Especially since the only locks for the rotation next year are Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton.  Kennedy would surely stabilize that.

I really don't see any negatives about acquiring Kennedy.  I mean the price might scare off the Pirates because they wouldn't pay AJ Burnett $12 million why would they pay Kennedy $9 million?  But Kennedy is not AJ Burnett.  He's 29 and shows signs that he is only going to improve while Burnett is only going to regress.  He doesn't have an extensive injury past.  He wouldn't cost too much in prospects either.

This is a trade I really think can happen and I really want it too.  The Pirates could use another starter just to stabilize the rotation for a playoff run and beyond.  Then if anyone gets hurt, Jeff Locke and Vance Worley will be there ready to go.  The Pirates have a good trade history with the Padres but since the front office was blown up I'm not sure that's the case anymore.  But the Pirates should be able to make a deal like this centered around Alen Hanson.  I think the Pirates have lost faith in Hanson because they continue to bench him for lack of effort and he's not getting it.  It's time to either play him or send him to a team that still values him as a top 100 prospect.  Maybe that's San Diego.  A deal consisting of Alen Hanson, Harold Ramirez and a grade C pitcher should be able to get it done.  If that's the case, NH should pull the trigger and add another good arm to the rotation.

Trade Profiles: Todd Coffey

Picture Credit: CBS Sports

Today I thought I would do my trade profile on a guy most of you probably don't even know and if you do know him, it's a name you haven't heard in a while.  Todd Coffey.  Coffey is a well traveled reliever that hasn't played in the majors since 2012 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, as pictured above.  But what would the Pirates want with this guy?  I'll tell you.

Coffey is currently pitching with the Seattle Mariners' Triple A affiliate, the Tacoma Rainers.  And he has an opt out clause in his contract where he can become a free agent if he isn't in the majors by a certain day.  I'm not sure when that day is but it doesn't matter if we trade for him.  Anyway, Coffey is lighting up Triple A right now.  He has an ERA of 1.47, although his FIP suggests regression to a 3.90 ERA, an 8.84 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.25.  With that type of stuff he should be in the major leagues.  And why not with the Pirates?

Here's the one thing that really screams to me that Coffey could be a Pirate soon.  He's an older, well traveled, right handed relief pitcher who has never had huge success in the league but is now lighting up the minor leagues.  Remind you of anyone?  Coffey is basically the 2014 version of what Jason Grilli was in 2011.  I looked at the stats and the two guys are remarkably similar.  Coffey has a lower ERA than Grilli did in 2011 pitching for Philly's AAA squad but Grilli had a higher K/9 and lower BB/9 but not by much.  And their WHIP's are only .09 apart.  Both guys were also primed to regress but Grilli went on to perform very well in the big leagues.  So is it too much to ask or even think that lightning can strike twice?

Now don't get me wrong.  Coffey is not the perfect target.  His high walk rate scares me a bit but the Pirates have always been able to get the most out of late inning relievers who have high walk rates.  Examples include Joel Hanrahan, Chris Resop, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro and Jason Grilli among others.  They work with command and make sure their pitchers can deceive guys so they swing and miss at stuff that would normally net them walks.  It's the Searage and Benedict factor.  Coffey is also almost 34 years of age.  So the age increases possibility for decline in performance and injury.  But who else was 34 when the Pirates plucked him out of the minors?  You guessed it.  Jason Grilli.

Looking at Coffey I think this would be a sneaky, great move for the Pirates to make to give them a java blast in the bullpen.  He has all the makings of yet another pitcher the Pirates can grab for absolutely nothing and turn into a stud relief pitcher.  And the fact that they can get the guy without giving up any big prospects or even good prospects just makes the idea even better.  It's all just pure speculation, but knowing Neal Huntington and how the Pirates have added relief pitchers in the past, I would be pretty surprised if they don't at least check in on Mr. Coffey.

Trade Profiles: Joakim Soria

Picture Credit: CBS Sports

Next up on the trade profiles is another reliever, you should get used to that, in the form of Joakim Soria.  Soria is a bit of an unknown commodity among Pirate fans but he has been one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the league recently and the Rangers are selling.  So let's take a look at the stats.

Since being named the Rangers' closer this season, Soria has flat out dominated, according to Fangraphs.  He has 16 saves this season and that's not all.  He's got a monstrous 11.87 K/9 along with a 1.65 BB/9.  His WHIP is an impressive 0.79.  And the most impressive part about Soria is his ERA.  He has an ERA of 2.67.  That may not sound like a lot, especially when Huston Street's ERA is 1.09.  But let's look at that magical stat.  FIP.  Soria's FIP shows he's supposed to get even better.  His FIP shows that he should have an ERA around 0.90.  That's just insane.  That's Tony Watson dominant.  Could you imagine having two Tony Watson's at the back of the bullpen?  That would definitely make this bullpen more dominant.

Now the drawbacks to Soria.  There really aren't too many.  He's in the last year of a 2 year $8 million contract but also has an option for next season.  And assuming that the option is around the same price as the other two years, he will make a lot of money for a reliever on a small market team but not way too much like Street.  The prospect cost will be almost as high as Street's, but if everyone is busy pursuing Huston Street, Soria could be there for a lesser price because of a lower bidding war.  The Rangers I'm sure are also looking to compete next season.  So they could be looking for some major league ready talent.  Especially pitching.  Could the Pirates sell them on Casey Sadler and another young prospect?  I'm not sure.  So what is the real big drawback to bringing in Soria?  It's his injury past.  He hasn't pitched a full season since 2011.  He had Tommy John Surgery that kept him out all of 2012.  He also only pitched 30 innings for the Rangers last season.  So any trade for Soria would involve an injury risk.

Overall, I like the idea of bringing in Soria.  It would be a sneaky move by the Pirates but not really sneaky.  Those really sneaky moves come later in the trade profiles.  I think Soria is a better option than Street solely because he has less name recognition or the "established closer" title, even though he has 176 career saves.  He wouldn't have to close for the Pirates but he could if that's the route they want to take.  Unless you're positive he will injure himself again, I don't see why you wouldn't want this guy in the back of your bullpen.  So if I were Neal Huntington, I would go after this guy my hardest and hope the price isn't too high.  If it is, you just gotta move on to a different name.

Trade Profiles: AJ Burnett

Picture Credit: Bleeding Yankee Blue Blog

Today I delve into the other player that has constantly been rumored to be on the Pirates' wish list, Batman himself, AJ Burnett.  Now if you follow me on twitter you probably know my feelings about bringing Burnett back to the Pirates, but I will give deeper analysis here.

AJ isn't having a bad season after signing a one year $16 million deal with the Phillies with a $7.5 million option for next season.  According to Fangraphs, Burnett has a 6-8 record and an ERA of 3.83.  That's pretty average.  Now looking at that magical stat I love, FIP, Burnett should have an ERA of 3.97.  And the even more advanced stat, xFIP, says he should have an ERA of 3.98.  Just a quick aside, FIP is fielding independent pitching, and xFIP is expected fielding independent pitching.  xFIP just ignores even more unlucky stats such as home run to fly ball ratio.  It is very interesting and much more accurate and I highly suggest learning more about it.  But back to AJ, he has a WHIP of 1.33.  Burnett also has a K/9 of 7.38 and a BB/9 of 3.90.  Now knowing the stats, let's get a do a little analysis.

If you look at AJ's stats, he seems to be having a solid season and he is.  But read more into it.  His ERA and FIP are much higher than they were when he was a Pirate.  His strikeouts are way down and his WHIP and walks are up.  That is not a good sign.  It looks like old, and I don't use that term lightly, AJ Burnett is slowing down.  Do the Pirates really need a declining pitcher on their roster for the next season and a half?  Also, look at that price.  If the Pirates wouldn't pay more than $12 million for AJ Burnett, why would they give up prospects to get him AND pay him more?  Does that make sense?  AJ also has a sports hernia and he needs surgery that he is holding off on until the end of the season.  So he's also damaged goods!

Now if that wasn't enough to convince you that he would be a bad idea, a great site I pay a lot of attention to, Pirates Prospects, put out a great article about AJ as well (which I unfortunately can't seem to find).  And if you read their analysis, AJ would be the 7th best starting pitching option the Pirates have.  Only beating out Edinson Volquez.  Seventh!  Robin is even better than Batman now!  So he would not even be an upgrade.  And I didn't even mention how much of a clubhouse distraction he would be.

This may article may seem like a complete blast of AJ Burnett but I don't hate the guy.  He was a great pitcher for the Pirates.  An absolute ace.  And he basically made baseball relevant in Pittsburgh again by himself.  Words can't describe how much he meant to this club on and off the field the past two seasons.  And maybe he can come back and a playoff race will revitalize him.  But I doubt it.  It may be hard to admit because he has been so good and meant so much to this team but AJ Burnett is not the same pitcher he was the past two years.  It's time to stop putting up the bat signal, he's not going to answer.

Trade Profiles: Huston Street

Picture Credit: zimbio.com

It's that time of year again where I will go through the possible players the Pirates will target in a trade.  And the first player I will profile is the only player to actually connected to the Pirates.  That would be Padres closer Huston Street.

When you look at what the Pirates biggest weaknesses are, the first thing you'll point to is the bullpen and the ability, or lack thereof, to close out baseball games.  Bringing in a guy like Huston Street would definitely fix that problem pretty fast.  But is it realistic to bring in Huston Street?

Well let's start by looking at the positives of bringing in Huston Street.  The first thing would be his closing ability.  Since he became a professional he has a whopping 258 saves and he has only blown 42 of those opportunities.  So he is a proven closer.  He's got a 9.27 K/9 and a 1.91 BB/9.  His ERA is an absolutely stellar 1.09.  But a new stat I like to use is FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) which shows if a guy is due to regress.  Simply if the player has been lucky or unlucky because of his fielding.  And Street's FIP is 2.90 so he is due for some regression but that is still very good.  His WHIP is 0.76.  So this guy is a big time late inning guy.  He's also only 30 and has a team option for next year, making him more than just a rental. 

The most impressive stat to me are his splits.  Many people like to bring up that Street is playing at Petco Park, the most pitcher friendly park in baseball.  Well has anyone looked at his splits?  He has actually performed even better away from Petco!  The dude has given up zero ones and only one extra base hit outside of Petco Park.  So this is no fluke.  With all that said there are some drawbacks about adding Street.

The biggest issue for me when talking about trading for Street is not his performance.  I would LOVE to have this guy in our back pocket.  Watson, Melancon, Street would be even more dominant than it was with Grilli and Hanrahan in previous years.  But with this established closer is going to come a huge cost.  There will likely be a bidding war for his services and the likely cost for Street will probably jump to Josh Bell.  And I would never give up Bell for Street.  Street's WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 0.5.  Let's say he repeats that next season too.  So he would have a total WAR of 1.0 as a Pirate.  He would account for one win.  Josh Bell's WAR as a pro has a chance to eclipse 20 as a Pirate.  Would you trade 20 wins over 6-7 seasons for 1.0 win over two years?  It doesn't make sense.  Plus Street is making $7 million this year and has an option for the same next year.  That is cheap for a closer of his caliber but as a small market team, the Pirates can't pay that much for a guy who may pitch like 80.0 innings a year.  Finally, Mark Melancon is a very capable closer.  It might be better just to add a back end bullpen piece like a seventh inning guy or a set up man for a much cheaper cost.

Overall, I don't think we should trade for Street unless the price is lower than thought.  And you never know.  Two years ago I thought there would be the same type of bidding war over the Padres Ryan Ludwick and we got him for a PTBNL or cash.  So you never know.  Just knowing Neal Huntington's track record of taking relief pitchers off of the scrap heap for nothing, see Grilli, Jason, Resop, Chris and Gomez, Jeanmar, I just don't see him giving up a valuable piece of the farm system for a relief pitcher.

All stats are via Huston Street's Fangraphs page

Josh Bell Promoted to Altoona

Picture Credit: piratesprospects.com

Before I start writing I want to let everyone who followed my blog before know that I am back and I will once again be operating this blog full time.  And to those of you who haven't followed the blog before now, welcome.  Now to the real article.

Today Josh Bell was promoted form high-A Bradenton to AA Altoona.  If you don't remember Josh Bell, he was the Pirates second round pick back in 2011, the same year we got Gerrit Cole.  He was the kid who was a top 15 prospect in the draft and sent out the letter to everyone saying that he was going to play for the University of Texas no matter who picked him.  Then the Pirates took him in round two and signed him to a record $5 million signing bonus.  The rest is history.

Anyway Bell's professional career started with a hiccup as he was injured most of the year and played sparingly in West Virginia.  He still managed to show some great power potential from both sides of the plate as a switch hitter.  This year he has exploded onto the scene.  He played in the futures game a few days ago and has been hitting a blistering .333/.380/.495 line in high-A.  He has been showing a great bat on both sides of the plate as well.

This is a big time step for Bell because it means he could be following in the path of Gregory Polanco.  Polanco was the same age when he made this jump and if Bell continues to hit as well as he has been and lights up the Winter Leagues like Polanco it is likely he could be in Pittsburgh this time next year.  But will he is the question.

The main problem is that he is an outfielder and if you haven't noticed, we don't need anymore of those.  The idea is that he could be moved to first base and I love this idea because he's big enough to play there and isn't that great defensively anyway.  But converting him there this off season could delay his call up by months as he learns the new defensive position while trying to keep up that offensive output.

I am also a bit fishy of this call up right now.  It is the time most guys move up but it's interesting because Bell is rumored to be the Pirates' top trade chip.  I also read that the Cubs have been scouting him in particular.  Could Bell have been promoted as a showcase over the next few weeks before the deadline?  Because if his bat continues to play that well in AA, that only increases his value.  I wouldn't trade him because we have plenty of other outfielders to part with and he is the only one that can realistically play first base.  Plus it is so rare to find a guy with that type of switch hitter power on both sides.

Bottom line is that this kid is going to be an absolute stud with the bat when he comes up to the bigs.  And this step shows that he will be arriving in the majors for the Pirates, or someone else, much sooner rather than later.

Tomorrow I will be starting a series of my favorite articles.  My trade target articles and they will continue all the way up until the 31st.  Stay tuned.