Trade Target: Jesse Crain

The Pirates bullpen has been great this year. They have the 2nd best ERA in the national league but the Shark Tank is going to need a new shark to carry them through the home stretch. And I'm not talking guys like Chad Qualls or Hisanori Takahashi. I'm talking a bonafide, trusty reliever for the seventh inning. Jesse Crain could be the perfect shark to add.

If we're gonna talk about sharks, adding Crain would be like adding Jaws. He's been dominant for the ChiSox this year. He has a 0.74 ERA, 46/11 K/BB ratio, and a monster 11.3 K/9. He has the ERA of Mark Melancon and the strikeout rate of Jason Grilli. The best part is unlike the stats of yesterday's profile, Nate Schierholtz, these breakout stats are sustainable. Crain finished last season with a K/9 rate of exactly 11.3 and the year before that it was 9.3. So racking up strikeouts isn't new to him. He also has a track record of low ERAs. He had a 3.04 ERA in 2010, a 2.64 ERA in 2011, and a 2.44 ERA last season. So while his ERA will probably get higher (he's yet to allow a HR) that is more than solid for a 7th inning man. So does Crain have any drawbacks?

I don't see many issues at all with Crain but the one thing is that he may take more to acquire than the normal reliever. Many teams are interested in him because he could be the best reliever on the market. I don't want to give up a solid prospect for a rental reliever so if the price is too high the Bucs will have to walk away. But who knows? In 2011 a lot of teams wanted Ryan Ludwick but the Pirates got him for a PTBNL. Lets just hope that if we do get Crain that he doesn't perform like Ludwick did.

Overall, Crain is probably the best relief pitcher the Pirates could go after. If the price is right, the Pirates should pull the trigger, especially if it also blocks the rival Reds, who are rumored to be very interested, from getting him. With Ryan Reid wasting space in the bullpen, Crain could easily be added. And with Wilson pitching so many innings and Watson still a little shaky for me, Crain, Melancon, Grilli could be the best three man combo in the league.

Tomorrow's trade target will be SP Bud Norris

Trade Target: Nate Schierholtz

This is the first of several trade deadline target profiles that I will be doing everyday in July until I run out. The first man on my list is Nate Schierholtz. The Scierholtz rumors really flew when the Buster Olney tweeted that Theo Epstein and Neal Huntington have made deals in the past and that Schierholtz fills a need. He's a 29 year old right fielder who has been pretty pedestrian throughout his career but is having a breakout season and someone who could come in and help a team like the Pirates down the stretch.

Like I said, Schierholtz's career has been pretty pedestrian. His career slash is .272/.331/.428 adding up to an OPS of .749. He also averages 9 HRs and 42 RBIs per season. But, also like I said, he is having a monster year. His slash is .286/.335/.541 with the OPS of .876 plus 11 HRs and 34 RBIs. So he's raking right now. To put it into perspective, he'd lead the Pirates in OPS. And I didn't mention that he's a solid fielder as well. He's got a WAR of 1.6. He's never had a WAR above 0.9 before. The most impressive thing about him is his slash with runners in scoring position. He hits .327/.391/.509 in these situations. That's an OPS of .900. So he drives in runs, the Pirates big weakness. Another good thing? He's under team control for next year. So what are the drawbacks for him?

I see multiple red flags when looking at Schierholtz. The first thing I see is that he's a lefty. Ideally, you'd like a right handed bat to platoon with Snider but I can overlook this for these stats. Second big red flag for me is consistency. Schierholtz already has 11 HRs on the year. Before this season, he'd never hit more than 9 in a single year. He's also never had more than 42 RBIs in a season and he's already at 34. His career OPS is around .749. And his career slash with RISP is only .284/.360/.397 for an OPS of .757. So basically my question is, can he keep it up? Was this first half a fluke or is he just hitting his prime and putting up the numbers of his career? The Pirates will have to decide on that one.

Overall, I'm a fan of Schierholtz. He would be a solid upgrade in RF and would come cheap. I like his stats, his playoff experience, and his control, which I know Neal Huntington will like. I've read rumors of a trade where we would get Schierholtz and Matt Garza (another profile for later) from the Cubs as a repayment for giving them Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton in 2003. The Cubs went to the playoffs that year thanks to that move while the Pirates dumped salary. With both teams in the opposite situation, could Chicago do the same? Only time will tell. One thing I know for sure is that Neal Huntington will make at least one call to the Cubs during this trade month.

Tomorrow's trade deadline profile will be RP Jesse Crain

Francisco Liriano an All-Star?

Francisco Liriano has been on fire this season. It is his best start since his unbelievable 2006 season. But one thing I haven't heard is Francisco Liriano for the All-Star game.

Francisco Liriano is 7-3 with a 2.30 ERA in 54.2 IP and a 10.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 2.77 K/BB and another Pirate who should make the All-Star team, Jeff Locke, is 7-1 with a 2.06 ERA in 96.1 IP and a 6.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and 1.63 K/BB. So why shouldn't he have the consideration? He has the same amount of wins, a better strike out ratio, a better walk rate, and a better strikeout per walk rate than Locke and has a very similar ERA. What's holding him back from the All-Star game? I think it's his innings pitched being significantly lower because he missed a lot of time. Guys who have put up similar production in more innings seem possibly more deserving but it's still hard to argue with those stats.

I wrote this quick snapshot of an article to highlight Liriano's under appreciated stats and make an All-Star case for him. I wrote I while ago about how Liriano could be the ace of the rotation by year's end if he keeps this up and has really had to be with AJ and Wandy down. So I think despite the lower innings he should still make it. I don't think he will though but you never know with the Yaisel Puig hype after less than a month of playing in the MLB. To end I'll give you a list of guys who could make an All-Star game and who I think will.

Could: Liriano, Locke, Grilli, Alvarez, Cutch, Melancon, Martin

Will: Grilli, Locke, Alvarez

Only time will tell who gets in but Frank The Tank should definitely get consideration.

The question isn't should the Pirates bring in Giancarlo Stanton, it's will they bring him in

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that the Pirates have been linked to Giancarlo Stanton. It started with an article by Dave Schoenfield who described why we need Stanton. James Santelli took it farther and talked about the ten reasons the Pirates should trade for Stanton. I can't link the articles because it screws up my entire post (this is the second time I'm writing this) but if you go to PiratesProspects.com or the ESPN SweetSpot Blog I'm sure you can find both articles. They're also both on twitter and fantastic reads if you have the time. Anyways, Dave's article summarized says we need Stanton to stop our hitting woes and says a price the Marlins would take would be Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco, Tony Sanchez, and a C grade left handed pitching prospect. Steep price huh? Well it's absolutely worth it. If you followed me last year, I was in on the Justin Upton trade but that probably would've been a mistake. This is different. Stanton is a bonafide star. He's 23, plays RF, is under control through the 2016 season, and is one of only 12 players to hit 100 HRs before their 23rd birthday. 8 of the other 11 are in Cooperstown, two more are Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr (sure fire Hall of Famers). So basically ya. This guy ain't coming cheap. But you know what it's worth it.

This deal is worth it because of the farm system. I can't applaud Neal Huntington enough for building what I and several experts believe is the best farm system in the MLB from the garbage heap he got from Dave Littlefield. We would be trading our top two prospects but we would have replacements. Trade Taillon, you have Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, and Luis Heredia still in the system all with similar potential. Trade Polanco, still have Austin Meadows, Josh Bell, Barrett Barnes, Elvis Escobar, Harold Ramirez all in the system. While they don't have Polanco's potential, you have several guys who could develop into players just about the same as him. Even trading Tony Sanchez would be ok. We wouldn't have much in AAA and would need to extend Russell Martin but Reese McGuire, Wyatt Mathieson, and Jin De Jhang. Are all in the low minors. So you see while the price looks steep, we can still do it without "selling the farm".

Why do we need Stanton? That's a stupid question. Everyone needs a power bat like that in their lineup but especially the Pirates. Travis Snider has disappointed and the Pirates rank dead last in OPS from right field in the NL. Obvious need for improvement. Guess what position Mike Giancarlo Stanton plays? You already know.

So if this is the scenario, the Pirates really should do this right? Right. But will they? That's a different story.

The first roadblock is will the Marlins trade him. Well, the Marlins flat out suck. No way around it. They won't contend until after Stanton is gone so they will trade him but they may wait until the offseason until they get a bigger haul. But what if they decide now is the time. Well, like I said everyone could use a Giancarlo Stanton so everyone will want him. There are very few teams that have the resources to do this trade without destroying their future. The Yankees want him but I don't think they have the prospects. The Rangers are the biggest threat but their biggest trade chips are two shortstops (Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus). The Marlins got a star SS prospect in the Blue Jay fire sale trade so they may not be a match. So the Marlins decide to sell him. We're the perfect match. Why won't the Pirates make this deal. Well there's still one big problem.

Management. Do Neal Huntington and Bob Nutting have the balls to pull this off? Will they take the risk. It is a big risk. Sending two of the top prospects in baseball away for one man who has an injury history and will cost a lot of money in the next three years. Could they extend him and bite the bullet of money? (James Santelli's suggestion). I just don't see Neal Huntington standing up and saying "Deal". Even if he was, I don't see Bob Nutting allowing him to do it. The Pirates will not go with the core of seven (Cutch, Marte, Cole, Alvarez, Locke, Walker, Stanton) that could win multiple World Series through 2016 while they're under team control but will rather hope for Stanton to be switched with Taillon and Polanco for a longer time period starting in two more years.

I don't agree with this but I think it is what they will do. I think this team has more depth and is not going to collapse if help is added to the offense. But if you think about it, Neal has been cautious because he knew the team wasn't that good. The team needs a right fielder. Neal Huntington needs to win to avoid losing his job. Nutting needs to win over fans. MLB teams are getting over $20 million in new TV contracts next year. So is that a perfect storm to make a big move for Stanton or another superstar? The chances are slim but to cheer you up, the chances are probably higher than any Justin Upton trade last year but lower than any Hunter Pence trade. I'd look for more guys like Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young, Josh Willingham, Ricky Nolasco, Bud Norris, and relievers to be targeted. But could the stars align? It's a possibility that we could see Giancarlo Stanton crushing home runs into the Pittsburgh skyline.

Gerrit Cole: What happens after the debut?

Gerrit Cole will make his major league debut tonight for the Pirates. He's the first #1 Pirate Prospect to make his debut since Pedro Alvarez in 2010 and first #1 pitching prospect since Kris Benson in 1999. Needless to say, this is a big deal. This article is not about what to expect, which I believe will be very very good things, but about what happens afterwards. The top prospect in the system does not come up to make a spot start so I have to believe Cole is here to stay and optioning him back isn't an option. I have had an idea for a long time about what the Pirates should/could do with their excess starters. I thought I would have a post like this when Charlie Morton came up and JMac wasn't injured, but now Cole complicates things farther. There is a possible solution other than trades and here it is.

A six man rotation. This idea was discussed last year as a possibility to save energy for the starters but this year it's about using all the effective starters. After Cole debuts, we're going to have a problem. The rotation will look like this: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, and Gerrit Cole. This is assuming no DL stint for Wandy. Now Charlie Morton is ready and could be used as the long reliever for now but then we have James McDonald. Ok we can send down Vin Mazzaro and hope he passes through waivers so JMac can be the 2nd long man. But then we have Jeanmar Gomez. What now? We have three long relievers. Now comes the six man rotation idea. Throw Charlie Morton in as a sixth starter and use Gomez and McDonald as the long men. This makes Mazzaro the odd man out but sacrifices must be made. Another guy will be down for Cole tonight (guessing Zagurski gets optioned if he has any left, if not Reid is optioned) and eventually others will have to go too. But this could be a way to use the excess guys without being forced to DFA or trade them. I personally would rather see JMac traded for a bench piece or anything at this point. That would leave us with still a good bit of depth. This is also assuming that no other injuries occur which is always a possibility.

To conclude this, I'll say the best long term solution for the Pirates is a six man rotation or trading a starter if everyone remains healthy. If no one is traded I see this as the best rotation and bullpen in the future.

Rotation: AJ, Wandy, Liriano, Locke, Cole, Morton

Bullpen: JMac, Gomez, Wilson, Watson, Melancon, Grilli

I don't think the Pirates will do this and they will trade at least one excess starter but this is a possibility that must be explored. If someone is traded, look for it to be before someone comes off rehab or someone on rehab just before they come off like John McDonald was dealt today. Time will tell how this all works out.

Pirates grab Meadows, McGuire, and Taylor

The first day of the MLB Draft was a good one for the Pirates. A lot of people believe the Pirates had the best draft of the day and I tend to agree. They grabbed three high schoolers taking OF Austin Meadows, C Reese McGuire, and LHP Blake Taylor. This is interesting because Neal Huntington had never drafted a prep hitter in round one and he took two of them this year. The fact that they went boom or bust with high school players also shows how much the farm system has come along. I'll go over my reaction to each pick right now

Austin Meadows

Meadows was a guy who was talked about as possibly going number one this year. He and fellow top ten pick Clint Frazier tore it up in their Georgia town. Meadows was considered the #2 high school prospect, #2 outfielder, #2 overall hitter, and #5 overall player in the draft by Baseball America. That's quite a haul for the #9 overall pick. His bat is the big thing here. If he develops the power many expect he will, he will become a five tool outfielder like you see with Andrew McCutchen. He's not McCutchen though because he'll lose speed as he gets bigger and his arm isn't that good but solid. Meadows isn't seen as a guy that will be hard to sign so don't worry about that. Meadows is added to a deep stable of gifted outfielders along with Cutch, Starling Marte, Travis Snider, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, and Barrett Barnes. This takes pressure off of all of these guys to reach full potential and I would expect one or two of them to be traded in deals for major league pieces at the trade deadline or the offseason. This could also allow the Pirates to let Cutch walk down the road if three other guys are stepping up or he is starting to decline. I see a future outfield of Polanco, Marte, Meadows left to right in five years.

Reese McGuire

This was the guy the Pirates were linked to at #9 by every single mock draft. But when Meadows fell into their lap, they had to take him. I was kinda disappointed with this pick but it's not bad by any stretch of the imagination. Braden Shipley, a RHP from Nevada, was still available and was regarded as the third best college pitcher in the draft. He was expected to go #6 overall. I understand why they didn't take him though. Sign ability. Shipley was expected to go higher so he'll want more money. The Pirates couldn't afford another Appel situation so they took a guy they loved in McGuire. Back to McGuire now, he's regarded as the best catching prospect and #10 player overall so this is another value pick at #14. The problem with prep catchers is usually if they will stick at catcher (Neil Walker). McGuire has unbelievable defense and arm behind the plate so that is no problem. His bat is the issue and gets different reviews by different people. I tend to think his bat will develop and he'll add power in the minors. This should make him a future all-star catcher and those are extremely hard to come by.

Blake Taylor

Taylor is a big project LHP. He sits in the low 90s with his fastball and throws a nice curveball. He needs to develop a change up and learn some control, two things the Pirates are good at developing, just look at Tyler Glasnow. I feel this pick was more need based than people think although it is good value. Taylor was expected to go around here so it's a good value pick but considering who was on the board, Jon Denny and Bobby Wahl to name a few, it doesn't look that great. Denny makes it interesting because he is a prep catcher that some think has a higher ceiling than McGuire. If the Pirates knew he would still be available (and still is) I'm sure they would've taken Braden Shipley at #15 and taken the risk to sign him. Meadows, Shipley, and Denny would've deserved a standing ovation. Wahl is a college pitcher out of Ole Miss who was considered top 20 in some mocks I would've liked to see him because he'd be closer to the majors but I can live with passing on him. The Pirates needed LHP talent and got some at good value. Can't complain too much about that.

Overall the beginning of this draft has been fantastic and I expect more of the same as today goes on. Look for the Pirates to go for college hitters and pitchers early today and then taper off and go for falling high school pitchers they think they can develop into aces as many do in college around round 5 or 6 and see if they can pay over slot to sign them. Its starting to work with Tyler Glasnow so they'll keep doing it. I'll write another shorter one of these

tomorrow with interesting selections. Stay tuned